Lead With CLARITY Issue #16 - THE FOG OF WAR
- Peter McLean
- Dec 3
- 7 min read
Issue#16, December 2025
Happy end-of-year, Christmas, New Year and all of that to you all!
SEEING THROUGH THE FOG OF WAR
When you get in the middle of the action, with all kinds of insanity and chaos starting to happen: people coming at you from every direction, policy changing around you on the fly, tariffs or not-tariffs changing during the night, Head of HR resigning due to pregnancy, supply chains disrupted, customers that are difficult to deal with, production lines stalling and, seemingly on top of that, siblings, kids, grandkids whom you want to spend time with or help - in either dire or exciting situations.
Contrary to some who use the phrase, the 'fog of war' is not using a satellite to peer through smoke after a long-range missile has hit a perceived enemy.
A brilliant and accessible application of the concept is Errol Morris' moving and disturbing 2003 documentary by the same name, Fog of War, a retrospective on the military life of Robert S. McNamara, US Secretary of Defense under John F. Kennedy and subsequently Lyndon B. Johnson.
A brilliant statistician, analyst and executive, he became the first non-Ford-family President of Ford Motor Company at the age of 44, in 1960. A few weeks later, he moved into the role of Secretary of Defense, bringing that same analytical and executive mindset to military defense matters. And, yes, it plonked him in the middle of the Cold War, the Cuban Missile Crisis and the Vietnam War. After several years in the post, he resigned and went on to become President of the World Bank.
The documentary is both a chilling and empathetic portrait of a man, then in his mid-80s, looking back on the application point of analytical science and extreme military force. And the development of strategy and decision-making required in the real fog of war - when data, science, procedure only tell you so much. The world came razor-thin (frighteningly thin as the documentary makes clear) to a nuclear war: all based on rational, data-based decision-making. It wasn't brilliant intelligence that averted nuclear war.
Some of the 11 lessons that Morris describes (and the 10 further lessons from McNamara that Morris included with copies of his doco) are even more relevant to leadership and strategy today than they were twenty years ago or, indeed, sixty years ago:
For example:
Lesson #1: Empathize with your enemy. Empathising - that is, understanding - your enemy is key to understanding the situation properly. That's one of the points I include as "Learn Your People" in my CLARITY™ model.
Lesson #2: Rationality alone will not save us. A belief that cold logic and analysis can save one from dire situations and/or create the right end result. That's part of what I label "Thinking The Way You Think" under "Lead With CLARITY™" as a Keynote Speaker and Coach.
Lesson #3: There's something beyond one's self. "There's something beyond oneself and a responsibility to society." That's one of the reasons why I included my principle that we "Aim Higher Together" when leading with CLARITY™.
But another of his lessons is something I will focus on here:
Lesson #7: Belief and seeing are both often wrong.
It's very easy from a psychological point of view to be assured that you know to be true IS true because you both believe it and see it. You might call it confirmation bias.
Now, the usual explanation for how to overcome confirmation bias is the dispassionate, rational examination of an issue - that that will lead to a better evaluation and analysis.
But, in fact, as McNamara and Morris point out, that can actually end up being the opposite in determining the truth and gaining clarity in the fog of war. Why?
Because one is not invested in sorting through to determine a clear outcome based on principles that will save and help others beyond oneself and one's dream.
We have seen this happen time and time again in local, national and international politics: candidates and parties gather evidence that they are ahead in the polls and likely to succeed. They work hard, get results and seem to see the fruits of their efforts ... until they don't.
It's like a wall suddenly comes down shutting off success and they stumble about in the dark wondering why they didn't see it.
It wasn't for lack of data. They had plenty. It wasn't for lack of rationality. They were pursuing a logical course based on extensive data. The problem was that the data and its fundamental assumptions were wrong in the first place. The problem was that if you reason well according to the prevailing notions, you can still easily have faulty reasoning.
And the problem is, when your focus reduces to yourself - not to outside and what is occurring in the external environment, to something and someone greater than oneself, to empathising with others outside your goals and visions - then your reasoning is only applicable within a narrow world.
That's why some people think that their AI chatbot has actually achieved a level of independent sentience. Their world and focus is so narrow, they cannot see reality. And that's true of Sam Altman, Jeff Bezos and their cadre, fantasising about an externalised digital economy that has less and less producers who constitute a smaller and smaller consumer-spending group for their increasingly abstracted digital products - all powered by moon bases and dyson spheres magically built around the solar system to supply the almost infinite level of energy and materials required to build ... the moon bases and system-encompassing dyson spheres that are necessary to create the ...
Oh, never mind! Any cursory examination shows that they are just plain crazy and attempting another level of global grift to enrich and indulge themselves.
And therein lies the problem: Within their circle, it all seems rational and built on their extensive data - and data centres. "This can work!" they cry. Until it doesn't.
Just because you believe and see it, does not mean it's right.
A cold, analytical stance is NOT the precursor to clarity. As McNamara states in his ten lessons: "Corporate executives must recognize there is no contradiction between a soft heart and a hard head."
It's the application of that principle that might, yes, sometimes produce apparent defeat, but it can also avert incredible disaster - deadly disaster. And those of you who work in life-and-death environments like medicine, health and potentially mining, construction, manufacturing and more industries, know how literally vital this can be.
So, this brings us back to the reality I want you to consider:
To lead, we have to learn to see through the fog of war.
That means, as I state in my CLARITY™ Leadership Keynotes and Coaching
Learn Your People - enemies, friends, allies, suppliers, consumers, whatever and whoever is involved. Truly understand and empathise (not necessarily sympathise).
Aim Higher Together - use others' brains and perspectives. Don't assume you're the smartest person in the room. The "smartest" person on paper can be the most deadly wrong in the thick of war.
Have the Courage to Challenge - challenge your own perceptions and seek understanding. A good place to start with that is by doing something some leaders find unimaginable: ASK. It's amazing what you find out when you ask and shut up to truly listen.
As you race towards the end of the year and the commencement of 2026, you'll need to see through the fog of war more than ever.
PERSONALLY SPEAKING
When Christmas comes around for my Mum this year, it will be at a different date than previous years. She used to celebrate it on January 7, the traditional Ukrainian date. She's 83 years old, so she's been doing it for quite a while.
A couple of years ago, the Ukrainian (Greek-)Catholic church's see decided to change the date globally to December 25, in order to be aligned with the majority celebration across the Catholic world and, more importantly, to distance themselves from the Russians.
Now, to my mind, that is a lousy reason to change a date - because the Russians did it. After all, they don't stop eating varenyky or borscht (both very welcome at that time of year) because the Russians also do that. In fact, there would be a global uprising that would pale all other movements into insignificance should Ukrainians be asked to do so.
But, probably just as importantly it comes with a whole host of negative consequences. In years past, Mum and the family could take advantage of Boxing Day sales (post-Christmas sales) for all the gifts. The event, as it was held from January 6-7 did not cause conflicts with extended family wishing to join other family on the 25th. People were not travelling away over Christmas and the New Year. And a number of other advantages, including the concentration away from all the commercialism of Dec 25.
As it is, the extended family are doing a number of these things at that time and so settled on an earlier date to "celebrate" Christmas.
I know I'm a bit stubborn, but after all the wrangling I get to the point of saying, "Why bother? Just set the date back on the original and whoever can come can come."
Sometimes it really is just easier to say, "You know what? That's the goal. Meet it or don't."
If the destination is attractive enough, people will come to the party.
Let me know if you liked or appreciated this newsletter. Share it with others. Feel free to quote with attribution.
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